NFBC Main Event 2023: Gene McCaffreys team building takes in a high stakes league draft

June 23, 2024

Fantastic time in Vegas for the NFBC Main Event, as always. Great people, great food and drink, and great competition. Thank you all, it’s an honor to know so many of you.

As you may know, my draft strategy is mostly no strategy. Know the players and think on your feet. Of course, I’m actually making strategic decisions all the while, especially early when more options are open. Usually I prefer to be as balanced as possible for as long as possible, but in any format you have to take what the draft gives you. It will be little enough.

We (joined by my friend and long-time partner John Menna) started out lucky, but it didn’t last. Sitting in the turn position at pick 15, we were going to take the two best hitters. We saw no reason to take a pitcher then, rather we wanted three SPs by pick 76. We figured we’d get Mike Trout, this year’s early gift as he was last year’s, and we did. We envisioned pick 16 as either Rafael Devers or Austin Riley, leaning toward Riley, which is a tweak for me based on their lineups.

But Gerrit Cole went at 11 and our wild hope that Yordan Alvarez would fall was now not so wild. Team 12 took Freddie Freeman and Team 13 Mookie Betts and it was down to one. At 14, the formidable team of Jason Anthony and Matt Modica took Spencer Strider, part one of their Strider/Jacob deGrom strategy, which in a Main Event with 750 teams is just the sort of thing worth doing.

In landing Alvarez and Trout, this enabled us to do something similar, only with hitting in the soon-scarce outfield. Now our thinking was get the best hitter and the best pitcher at 45-46 (We hoped for Jazz Chisholm, but he went at 39), and then the two best pitchers at 75-76.

For many years running, the NFBC Main Event has favored starting pitchers compared to their ADPs. So it was this year, with 12 already taken by our third round pick. This meant that a few big hitters would fall, and they did. The two best were Matt Olson and Corey Seager, a very tough call for me. I love them both and actually considered taking them both, but chose only Olson because I couldn’t pass on Dylan Cease there, and it was already apparent that I would need speed in my middle infield. Cease will compete at the very top in Ks. I have him fifth among SPs, certainly no lower than eighth, and that’s the kind of gift I have to accept. Seager went with the very next pick.

The ADPs said I would get Framber Valdez at 75, but I was pretty sure that wouldn’t happen, and it didn’t. I don’t get his relatively low popularity. He’s the perfect SP2 and a serviceable SP1, consistently high quality and quantity on a great team. Robbie Ray also went, leaving us with Tristan McKenzie and Kyle Wright, both of whom immediately hit the IL. One is tempted to despair, but that would be melodramatic. Now I’m starting the season with five relievers and Jake Woodruff active.

So you notice that we have no speed and no closer, so we addressed both with Jake McCarthy and Jhoan Durán. Yeah, let’s get all panicky about closers because they mean so much even though they don’t, and even though whatever you do in the pen, it either works or it doesn’t — there is more luck in the cat than in any other. As I see it, let them grab their security blanket and I’ll settle for 33.5% Ks and 6% walks sitting at 101 mph, on a decent team.

McCarthy is among those fully capable of a 50-SB season and should have a long leash. My problems aren’t over but at least I’m in there swinging.

And now we come to picks 9-10. As mentioned above, to win the ME you have to take some chances. My partner Johnny came up with the notion of taking both Bryce Harper and Tyler Glasnow here. I remembered how I’ve been braying that the reserve rounds are loaded this year, and I should put that to the test with my own money. There is no talent gamble in either Harper or Glasnow, we’re talking MVP and Cy Young ability, it’s just a matter of getting two-thirds of a season from them, which looks like a good enough chance.

But I only pulled half the trigger. I took Harper, gambling that Glasnow would come back, which he didn’t. Instead I went with Amed Rosario, because it was him or Carlos Correa at SS, and then a big falloff (in my mind anyway) to Nico Hoerner or Ezequiel Tovar. And Correa was not a fit with the players we already had. Rosario is. In case you were wondering — I was — Team 2 manager Don Scott approached us at the break and said he wanted Harper too. I wonder whether I did the right things there and I guess we’ll see.

So things were looking good (we didn’t know about McKenzie and Wright yet). The catching situation was getting dicey and I hoped that Kiebert Ruiz would last. He did, and so at least I got out of the danger zone of two crappy catchers. With my other pick, I had just read that Daniel Hudson won’t be ready to start the season, so I said what the hell: Evan Phillips is great, and in a sane world he will seize the job and save 40 games. If not, I should at least be glad to have him around.

At 13-14, I figured I could put speed to bed with Josh Rojas and Jorge Mateo, at least until the speculation phase of the draft. Both were reaches by the ADPs and I couldn’t care less. They fill the right positions with stolen bases, and everyone at that table knows it. In both cases there are playing time worries, but again I don’t share them.

Mateo is a Grade A shortstop and I seriously doubt the O’s will scorn that, not when their run prevention strategy paid off so well last year.

I see a BA spike in Rojas’ future, which will force the issue. Of course, I could be wrong, but his base-running skill and his defensive versatility put a floor under him. Even if he has to go, his won’t be an empty pail. And again, I should practice what I preach.

Time for more pitching at 15-16, and I may have waited too long. There remained a slew of guys I wanted, and I thought two would get back to me. Only one did, as Trevor Rogers, Jameson Taillon, Edward Cabrera, Jack Flaherty, José Urquidy and Andrew Heaney all went, plus a couple of SPs I wasn’t interested in yet, Grayson Rodriguez and Miles Mikolas. I am content with Tyler Anderson at SP4, but I’m not crazy about José Berrios at SP5. But he can’t be that bad, can he? He didn’t lose velocity. The Jays should support him. Help.

I wanted a Batting Average middle infielder next, but all three of Luis Arraez, Jeff McNeil and Brendan Donovan were apparently sitting ducks since they all got picked off. So I pivoted and took Jurickson Profar to fill the cat role, and moved Rojas to second base. I preferred him at third.

Meanwhile, I didn’t want to get shut out of the decent C2’s, as I had been with the C1’s. I would have been happy with Travis d’Arnaud or the fresh-faced Yasmani Grandal, but of course they both went, leaving me Christian Vázquez. I’ll take it, but I’m not thrilled. I also decided right then that Endy Rodriguez would be my first reserve pick. That didn’t happen either. I should have jumped the gun. Rodriguez is so blatantly there for the many teams that will need catching help. I think a better way was to wait and get Endy in the 22nd round, and then take Yan Gomes way late to fill in early.

Moving Rojas meant I needed a third baseman from the supposed dregs, but I like Spencer Steer in a solid kinda way, and I backed him up in the reserve rounds with Eduardo Escobar. I paired Steer with Garrett Whitlock, an upside gamble comparable to Michael Kopech, who went a few picks earlier.

So then it was fill in and roll the dice time, and I finished off with

I immediately dropped Irvin to get a fill-in reliever for Kyle Wright, namely James Karinchak. I figured he’s got four games in Seattle — could be a Win or a Save there.

So let the games begin. Good luck!

(Top photo: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports)

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