Can LSU be a College Football Playoff contender in 2023?

June 05, 2024

BATON ROUGE, La. — The beauty of mailbag season is the balance between those who want to talk about the big-picture topics of whether this LSU team can win a title and those who want to dive into the nitty gritty of defensive line depth and the new hire’s recruiting prowess.

So we’ll break this mailbag into two. Here’s part one:

Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.

I’m originally from Baton Rouge and now reside in Knoxville, Tenn. There’s been a lot of whispers about championship aspirations in (Brian) Kelly’s second year. Anyone who has been watching the Saban era in Bama knows beating them once doesn’t mean you’ve equaled their dominance. Can this team have sustained success in the SEC West and also challenge Georgia this year? Or do you think it will take more time? — Steven A.

Steven makes a very valid point that we’re often victims of overreacting to teams beating Alabama once. What makes this LSU season so interesting is LSU is good enough to be at least one of the best teams in the SEC, even if it is not up to the level of the year-in, year-out Alabama-Georgia juggernauts of the past decade.

Remember relative minimums and maximums in calculus class back in the day? Maybe the best way to view the 2023 season is as a relative max, a short bump up before going back down before a long-term rise to go higher. The 2023 LSU team is one of the surest things in the country and clearly ahead of schedule. It has experience mixed with upside and a talented roster that should be a preseason top-five or -six to start the year. But even Kelly probably doesn’t think LSU is at the point where it is truly a stable, annual title contender yet. He’s often said LSU will be there when it only has to take two or three guys from the portal, not 11 or 12. So even if LSU does achieve massive things this year, it doesn’t mean it’s now on the same tier. Yet. I do think Kelly can get there in a few years.

GO DEEPER

Mandel's post-spring Too Early Top 25

Considering Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State are replacing quarterbacks and/or coordinators and many key players, it’s not unreasonable to think LSU could click, win the SEC and play for a national title. As we’ve probably written too often here, it’s a question of ceilings and floors. LSU’s floor is extremely high considering the return of Jayden Daniels, an experienced offense and a defense filled with game-changers like Harold Perkins, Maason Smith and Omar Speights. You know this team will be “good” at a minimum. Meanwhile, there’s a chance Alabama and Georgia have more growing pains with so many unknowns.

But what is LSU’s ceiling? Well …

Where do you see the ceiling for this LSU team in Year 2, honestly? I’ve seen the preseason predictions from other publications but is this team a true College Football Playoff participant or 2023 CFP championship contender? — Jarvierre H.

I appreciate the separation by Jarvierre between a CFP participant and a contender because if anybody understands the difference between making a Playoff and having a chance to really win it, it’s Kelly. And for all the talk about what LSU is at this moment, or what its floor is, it’s worth the thought exercise of what the best-case scenario looks like.

The ceiling is an undefeated national title. That is in the cards. Is it the most likely scenario? No. But the pieces are there for LSU to be the best team in the country.

Start from a logical point of view. LSU opens the season with a top-10 — if not top-five — matchup with Florida State in Orlando. The Tigers are generally considered a 1-point favorite across multiple sportsbooks, so if LSU wins that game it will open the season with the biggest win in the country and potentially be a top-two or -three team in the standings. From there, LSU is a favorite against every single team on the schedule until the road game at Alabama. First, if Alabama’s retool year isn’t going to plan, LSU can win it. Second, if LSU goes 11-1 with its only loss being to Alabama, that gets you into the Playoff most years. So there’s your roadmap.

In terms of what it would look like? On offense, Daniels already had a great first season in Baton Rouge (2,913 yards passing, 17 TDs, 3 INT, 885 rushing, 11 TDs), but if his improved, confident passing performances against Florida, Ole Miss and Alabama are signs of what he could look like after a full offseason at LSU and getting to know receivers, there’s no reason Daniels can’t be a Heisman candidate and a 4,000-yard passer. The weapons are there in Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas, Aaron Anderson and Kyren Lacy, and LSU has an experienced and talented offensive line led by Will Campbell and Emory Jones.

Malik Nabers (Matt Pendleton / USA Today)

There are more questions on defense, but that doesn’t mean they are clear weaknesses. Cornerback is a concern, but it will also field transfers that include a former freshman All-American (Duce Chestnut), a former five-star phenom (Denver Harris) and an FCS All-American (Zy Alexander). Those pieces could be exceptional. We just don’t know yet.

And there’s growing optimism that LSU’s front seven could be special. Maason Smith and returning All-American Mekhi Wingo could be the best defensive tackle duo in the country, and the same goes for Perkins and Speights at linebacker. Plus, the experienced safety duo of Greg Brooks Jr. and Major Burns shouldn’t be overlooked as a steadying, high-IQ force.

So LSU isn’t just a high-floor team. There are paths to LSU actually evolving into the best team in the country. This stuff just has to happen.

GO DEEPER

Is LSU the true 3-star U?

What’s the vibe you’re getting from the CFB media outside of Louisiana about LSU now and in the future with Kelly? Sustainable success? What do you hear? On par with Alabama and Georgia or a tier below? — Frank M.

This takes us back to the thinking of Steven’s question, but we should return to it because it’s about more than just the now. It’s, “What can LSU be for the next five to 10 years?”

I’d say most of the outside college football media views LSU as an intriguing fringe contender this year but not quite a title team. That’s probably fair until LSU proves otherwise. While I tend to think of LSU as a top-three or -four team considering the turnover of the other big programs, I also may be too close to it in Baton Rouge. Most experts understand LSU is bringing a lot back, but thought of 2022 as a nice, gritty story of LSU surprisingly taking the West and never saw the Tigers as one of the most talented teams. Also fair. And that view extends to how those experts view 2023 LSU, right or wrong.

As for the future, the sentiment can be summarized by the oft-mentioned theory that Kelly has always brought less-talented teams toward their ceiling, and now he seems to have the sports car that is LSU running properly. There’s consensus optimism that Kelly will have LSU winning at a consistent level for the next decade. The disconnect is likely many don’t talk of Kelly reaching the Alabama-Georgia tier.

The thing with LSU, though, is if anyone actually gets it running smoothly, it should be the new Alabama. A big if.

Jayden Daniels seems to be the best returning quarterback in the SEC and LSU returns many starters from last year on both sides of the team. This team feels like it should be competing for a CFP spot. What’s the one weakness of this team that could derail those dreams? — Jarvierre H.

Before I get to the question, I’d just say I think Daniels is the most established quarterback in the SEC. The test for him will be if he can make the leap and become the best. He’s capable of it.

The primary weakness that could derail LSU would likely be what happens in the secondary. Not special teams, because while I agree field goal is a concern, the rest of the special teams seem improved and I don’t think field goal alone is enough to derail a team.

If there were something that could really go wrong, it’s pass defense. As we mentioned before, it might be really good! But the group of LSU corners are comprised of high-upside talents with question marks and established players making large jumps in competition level. And LSU has two good starting safeties, but the next man up is true freshman Ryan Yaites. Considering Brooks and Burns have been banged up at times, there are scenarios where it could become an issue.

(Top photo: Stephen Lew / USA Today)

ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57k25ncGtmZnxzfJFsZmltX2Z%2BcLjSrmScp5yhsqixjJ%2BmqKySlrmtec%2BlmLKnlpt6c3yRbGY%3D